Fed Rates

25 bps decrease

No change

98%

25 bps decrease

$79M Vol.

Monthly

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh

94%

Yes94%No6%

Judy Shelton

Yes2%No98%

Kevin Warsh

94%

Yes94%No6%

Judy Shelton

Yes2%No98%

$28M Vol.

Fed Decision in June?

No change

91%

Yes91%No9%

25 bps decrease

Yes6%No94%

No change

91%

Yes91%No9%

25 bps decrease

Yes6%No94%

$7M Vol.

Monthly

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)

42%

Yes42%No58%

1 (25 bps)

27%

Yes27%No73%

0 (0 bps)

42%

Yes42%No58%

1 (25 bps)

27%

Yes27%No73%

$19M Vol.

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

3.75%

39%

Yes39%No61%

3.5%

25%

3.75%

39%

Yes39%No61%

3.5%

25%

$6M Vol.

Fed Decision in July?

No change

84%

Yes84%No16%

25 bps decrease

10%

No change

84%

Yes84%No16%

25 bps decrease

10%

$4M Vol.

Monthly

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

3.9%

67%

Yes67%No33%

3.8%

60%

Yes60%No40%

3.9%

67%

Yes67%No33%

3.8%

60%

Yes60%No40%

$212K Vol.

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

60%

29%

60%

29%

$37K Vol.

Daily

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

Pause–Pause–Pause

98%

Pause–Pause–Cut

Pause–Pause–Pause

98%

Pause–Pause–Cut

$515K Vol.

Daily

Fed rate hike in 2026?

16%

chance

Yes

$875K Vol.

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...? card icon

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?

chance

Yes

$1M Vol.

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↓ 3.25%

66%

Yes66%No34%

↓ 3.0%

25%

↓ 3.25%

66%

Yes66%No34%

↓ 3.0%

25%

$1M Vol.

Fed rate cut by...?

December Meeting

61%

Yes61%No39%

October Meeting

56%

Yes56%No44%

December Meeting

61%

Yes61%No39%

October Meeting

56%

Yes56%No44%

$1M Vol.

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

chance

Yes

$258K Vol.

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

12%

chance

Yes

$100K Vol.

Trump drops Powell investigation by…?

June 30

58%

Yes58%No42%

April 30

22%

Yes22%No78%

June 30

58%

Yes58%No42%

April 30

22%

Yes22%No78%

$13K Vol.

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

Pause–Pause–Pause

79%

Yes79%No21%

Pause–Pause–Cut

11%

Yes11%No89%

Pause–Pause–Pause

79%

Yes79%No21%

Pause–Pause–Cut

11%

Yes11%No89%

NEW

Daily

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

December 31

68%

Yes68%No32%

May 30

43%

Yes43%No57%

December 31

68%

Yes68%No32%

May 30

43%

Yes43%No57%

$122K Vol.

Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?

chance

Yes

$72K Vol.

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Pause–Pause–Pause

87%

Yes87%No13%

Pause–Pause–Cut

10%

Pause–Pause–Pause

87%

Yes87%No13%

Pause–Pause–Cut

10%