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Economy·Fed

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Market icon
Economy·Fed

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Oct 29

Dec 9

Oct 29

Dec 9

17% chance
Polymarket

$870,740 Vol.

17% chance
Polymarket

$870,740 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders assign an 83.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting the March FOMC Summary of Economic Projections' median forecast for the federal funds rate at 3.4% by year-end—implying one 25 basis point cut from the current 3.5%–3.75% target range—amid a labor market projected to average 4.4% unemployment. The March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year on a 10.9% energy spike tied to Iran tensions and oil volatility, yet core inflation held at 2.6%, tempering hawkish bets as policymakers deem the move transitory. Recent FOMC minutes noted openness to hikes if pressures persist, but trader consensus prioritizes steady policy; watch April nonfarm payrolls and the May FOMC for shifts.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$870,740
End Date
Dec 9, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders assign an 83.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting the March FOMC Summary of Economic Projections' median forecast for the federal funds rate at 3.4% by year-end—implying one 25 basis point cut from the current 3.5%–3.75% target range—amid a labor market projected to average 4.4% unemployment. The March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year on a 10.9% energy spike tied to Iran tensions and oil volatility, yet core inflation held at 2.6%, tempering hawkish bets as policymakers deem the move transitory. Recent FOMC minutes noted openness to hikes if pressures persist, but trader consensus prioritizes steady policy; watch April nonfarm payrolls and the May FOMC for shifts.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$870,740
End Date
Dec 9, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Fed rate hike in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 17% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 17¢, the market collectively assigns a 17% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Fed rate hike in 2026?" has generated $870.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 10, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Fed rate hike in 2026?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Fed rate hike in 2026?" is 17% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 17% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Fed rate hike in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.