Jerome Powell predictions & odds

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Fed decision in April?

Fed decision in April?

98%

No change

$79M Vol.

$3M today

$3M Liq.

7

Ends in 15 days

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

94%

Kevin Warsh

$28M Vol.

$918K today

$1M Liq.

79

Ends in 7 months

Fed Decision in June?

Fed Decision in June?

91%

No change

$7M Vol.

$539K today

$903K Liq.

Ends in 2 months

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

42%

0 (0 bps)

$19M Vol.

$234K today

$1M Liq.

54

Ends in 9 months

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

38%

3.75%

$6M Vol.

$63.7K today

$317K Liq.

5

Ends in 8 months

Fed Decision in July?

Fed Decision in July?

84%

No change

$4M Vol.

$358K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

60%

1

$37.2K Vol.

$24.5K Liq.

Ends in 15 days

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

2%

May 14

$2M Vol.

$32.3K Liq.

37

Ends in about 1 month

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

98%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$515K Vol.

$80.7K Liq.

Ends in 15 days

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Fed rate hike in 2026?

16%

$874K Vol.

$39.6K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

68%

↓ 3.25%

$1M Vol.

$229K Liq.

5

Ends in 9 months

Fed rate cut by...?

Fed rate cut by...?

61%

December Meeting

$1M Vol.

$203K Liq.

18

Ends in 2 months

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

3%

$257K Vol.

$12.6K Liq.

33

Ends in 3 months

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

74%

4.5%

$186K Vol.

$28.9K Liq.

Ends in 9 months

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

86%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$788K Vol.

$95.6K Liq.

Ends in 2 months

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

79%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$7.1K Vol.

$134K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

68%

December 31

$122K Vol.

$16.1K Liq.

8

Ends in 9 months

Trump drops Powell investigation by…?

Trump drops Powell investigation by…?

58%

June 30

$12.1K Vol.

$7.0K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Fed rate hike by...?

Fed rate hike by...?

22%

October Meeting

$31.3K Vol.

$153K Liq.

Ends in 7 months

Fed abolished before 2027?

Fed abolished before 2027?

4%

$3.7K Vol.

$8.2K Liq.

Ends in 9 months

Frequently Asked Questions

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Polymarket currently hosts 20 active markets for Jerome Powell that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Fed decision in April?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $150.4M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Fed decision in April?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Fed decision in April?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 98% chance to No change. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

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