Fed Rates predictions & odds

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Fed decision in April?

Fed decision in April?

98%

No change

$79M Vol.

$3M today

$3M Liq.

7

Ends in 15 days

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

94%

Kevin Warsh

$28M Vol.

$1M today

$1M Liq.

79

Ends in 7 months

Fed Decision in June?

Fed Decision in June?

91%

No change

$7M Vol.

$551K today

$897K Liq.

Ends in 2 months

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

42%

0 (0 bps)

$19M Vol.

$236K today

$1M Liq.

54

Ends in 9 months

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

38%

3.75%

$6M Vol.

$63.7K today

$320K Liq.

5

Ends in 8 months

Fed Decision in July?

Fed Decision in July?

84%

No change

$4M Vol.

$368K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

68%

3.9%

$212K Vol.

$18.0K Liq.

3

Ends in 9 months

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

60%

1

$37.2K Vol.

$25.9K Liq.

Ends in 15 days

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

98%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$515K Vol.

$81.4K Liq.

Ends in 15 days

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Fed rate hike in 2026?

16%

$874K Vol.

$36.8K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

68%

↓ 3.25%

$1M Vol.

$233K Liq.

5

Ends in 9 months

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

2%

May 14

$2M Vol.

$32.4K Liq.

37

Ends in about 1 month

Fed rate cut by...?

Fed rate cut by...?

61%

December Meeting

$1M Vol.

$203K Liq.

18

Ends in 2 months

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

13%

$100K Vol.

$20.0K Liq.

1

Ends in 9 months

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

3%

$257K Vol.

$12.8K Liq.

33

Ends in 3 months

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

76%

4.5%

$186K Vol.

$31.8K Liq.

Ends in 9 months

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

86%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$788K Vol.

$95.1K Liq.

Ends in 2 months

Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?

Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?

2%

$71.6K Vol.

$21.7K Liq.

1

Ends in about 1 month

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

79%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$7.1K Vol.

$133K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

68%

December 31

$122K Vol.

$17.7K Liq.

8

Ends in 9 months

Frequently Asked Questions

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Polymarket currently hosts 23 active markets for Fed Rates that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Fed decision in April?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $151.2M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Fed decision in April?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Fed decision in April?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 98% chance to No change. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Fed Rates predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.