Trader consensus tilts heavily toward "No" at 73.5% implied probability for U.S. enactment of an AI safety bill before 2027, driven by persistent congressional gridlock despite the Trump administration's March 20 National Policy Framework for Artificial Intelligence. This non-binding proposal urges Congress to prioritize innovation through regulatory sandboxes, federal preemption of burdensome state laws, and child safety measures via existing agencies, explicitly rejecting new AI regulators or comprehensive risk assessments for frontier models. No federal AI safety bills have advanced beyond early introduction in the 119th Congress, while states enacted 25 narrow laws on chatbots, deepfakes, and sector uses since mid-March. With 2026 midterms looming, traders doubt passage amid partisan divides on regulation scope.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$85,428 Vol.
$85,428 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$85,428 Vol.
$85,428 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus tilts heavily toward "No" at 73.5% implied probability for U.S. enactment of an AI safety bill before 2027, driven by persistent congressional gridlock despite the Trump administration's March 20 National Policy Framework for Artificial Intelligence. This non-binding proposal urges Congress to prioritize innovation through regulatory sandboxes, federal preemption of burdensome state laws, and child safety measures via existing agencies, explicitly rejecting new AI regulators or comprehensive risk assessments for frontier models. No federal AI safety bills have advanced beyond early introduction in the 119th Congress, while states enacted 25 narrow laws on chatbots, deepfakes, and sector uses since mid-March. With 2026 midterms looming, traders doubt passage amid partisan divides on regulation scope.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Volume
$85,428End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus tilts heavily toward "No" at 73.5% implied probability for U.S. enactment of an AI safety bill before 2027, driven by persistent congressional gridlock despite the Trump administration's March 20 National Policy Framework for Artificial Intelligence. This non-binding proposal urges Congress to prioritize innovation through regulatory sandboxes, federal preemption of burdensome state laws, and child safety measures via existing agencies, explicitly rejecting new AI regulators or comprehensive risk assessments for frontier models. No federal AI safety bills have advanced beyond early introduction in the 119th Congress, while states enacted 25 narrow laws on chatbots, deepfakes, and sector uses since mid-March. With 2026 midterms looming, traders doubt passage amid partisan divides on regulation scope.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$85,428End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus tilts heavily toward "No" at 73.5% implied probability for U.S. enactment of an AI safety bill before 2027, driven by persistent congressional gridlock despite the Trump administration's March 20 National Policy Framework for Artificial Intelligence. This non-binding proposal urges Congress to prioritize innovation through regulatory sandboxes, federal preemption of burdensome state laws, and child safety measures via existing agencies, explicitly rejecting new AI regulators or comprehensive risk assessments for frontier models. No federal AI safety bills have advanced beyond early introduction in the 119th Congress, while states enacted 25 narrow laws on chatbots, deepfakes, and sector uses since mid-March. With 2026 midterms looming, traders doubt passage amid partisan divides on regulation scope.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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