Market icon
Tech·Big Tech

Top AI model on April 17? (Style Control On)

Market icon
Tech·Big Tech

Top AI model on April 17? (Style Control On)

Apr 17

Apr 17

claude-opus-4-6-thinking 93%

grok-4.20-beta-0309-reasoning 2.8%

gemini-3.1-pro-preview 2.8%

gpt-5.4-high 2.1%

Polymarket
NEW

claude-opus-4-6-thinking 93%

grok-4.20-beta-0309-reasoning 2.8%

gemini-3.1-pro-preview 2.8%

gpt-5.4-high 2.1%

Polymarket
NEW

claude-opus-4-6-thinking

$167 Vol.

75%

grok-4.20-beta-0309-reasoning

$108 Vol.

3%

gemini-3.1-pro-preview

$55 Vol.

3%

gpt-5.4-high

$76 Vol.

2%

grok-4.20-beta1

$209 Vol.

2%

gemini-3-pro

$38 Vol.

1%

claude-opus-4-6

$5,440 Vol.

<1%

qwen3.5-max-preview

$110 Vol.

<1%

claude-opus-4-5-20251101-thinking-32k

$121 Vol.

<1%

gemini-2.5-pro

$103 Vol.

<1%

dola-seed-2.0-preview

$66 Vol.

<1%

kimi-k2.5-thinking

$205 Vol.

<1%

gpt-5.2-chat-latest-20260210

$77 Vol.

<1%

gemini-3-flash

$194 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking commands a 75.5% implied probability as the top AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text leaderboard under Style Control On by April 17, driven by its dominant 1504 Elo rating from recent human preference battles, outpacing Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1492 Elo) and GPT-5.4 variants. Released in February 2026, the model excels in sustained reasoning and coding tasks, bolstered by extended thinking capabilities that align with arena-style evaluations favoring structured outputs. Trader consensus reflects tight leaderboard margins—top models within 20 Elo points as of early April—but no major challengers like new Grok betas have displaced it amid complaints of minor throttling. With resolution imminent, volatility hinges on fresh battles or surprise releases from OpenAI or Google DeepMind.

This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$6,969
End Date
Apr 17, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 9, 2026, 5:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking commands a 75.5% implied probability as the top AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text leaderboard under Style Control On by April 17, driven by its dominant 1504 Elo rating from recent human preference battles, outpacing Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1492 Elo) and GPT-5.4 variants. Released in February 2026, the model excels in sustained reasoning and coding tasks, bolstered by extended thinking capabilities that align with arena-style evaluations favoring structured outputs. Trader consensus reflects tight leaderboard margins—top models within 20 Elo points as of early April—but no major challengers like new Grok betas have displaced it amid complaints of minor throttling. With resolution imminent, volatility hinges on fresh battles or surprise releases from OpenAI or Google DeepMind.

This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$6,969
End Date
Apr 17, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 9, 2026, 5:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Top AI model on April 17? (Style Control On)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 14 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "claude-opus-4-6-thinking" at 76%, followed by "grok-4.20-beta-0309-reasoning" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 76¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 76% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Top AI model on April 17? (Style Control On)" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 9, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Top AI model on April 17? (Style Control On)," browse the 14 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Top AI model on April 17? (Style Control On)" is "claude-opus-4-6-thinking" at 76%, meaning the market assigns a 76% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "grok-4.20-beta-0309-reasoning" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Top AI model on April 17? (Style Control On)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.