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Tech·AI

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

Market icon
Tech·AI

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

22% chance
Polymarket

$46,573 Vol.

22% chance
Polymarket

$46,573 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 78.5% implied probability for "No," driven by frontier AI models' current struggles on Epoch AI's FrontierMath benchmark, which tests unpublished research-level math problems unsolved by many experts. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 holds the record at 47.6% overall—50% on Tiers 1-3 (undergrad to postdoc difficulty) and 38% on Tier 4—but remains far from 90% mastery. Recent evaluations, like Meta's Muse Spark at 39% on Tiers 1-3 and 15% on Tier 4 last week, show competitive progress from late 2025's sub-3% baselines, yet scaling laws and reasoning limitations suggest diminishing returns ahead. Key catalysts include upcoming releases from Anthropic's Claude 5, Google's Gemini 4, and xAI's Grok iterations, alongside potential advances in test-time compute or novel architectures, though eight months to resolution tempers optimism.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$46,573
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 78.5% implied probability for "No," driven by frontier AI models' current struggles on Epoch AI's FrontierMath benchmark, which tests unpublished research-level math problems unsolved by many experts. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 holds the record at 47.6% overall—50% on Tiers 1-3 (undergrad to postdoc difficulty) and 38% on Tier 4—but remains far from 90% mastery. Recent evaluations, like Meta's Muse Spark at 39% on Tiers 1-3 and 15% on Tier 4 last week, show competitive progress from late 2025's sub-3% baselines, yet scaling laws and reasoning limitations suggest diminishing returns ahead. Key catalysts include upcoming releases from Anthropic's Claude 5, Google's Gemini 4, and xAI's Grok iterations, alongside potential advances in test-time compute or novel architectures, though eight months to resolution tempers optimism.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$46,573
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 22% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 22¢, the market collectively assigns a 22% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?" has generated $46.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?" is 22% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 22% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.