Trader consensus on the tightly matched probabilities for zero (38.5%) versus one (44.5%) large volcano eruptions—defined as Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥4, ejecting at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of material—in 2026 stems from the historical global baseline of roughly 0.6 such events annually, per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data, with none confirmed through late March despite 47 total eruptions. USGS monitoring reveals ongoing unrest at volcanoes like Kīlauea (elevated to WARNING alert in early April) and Sakurajima, but these typically produce effusive or low-VEI explosive activity rather than the magma dynamics needed for VEI≥4 blasts from subduction-zone stratovolcanoes. Differentiating factors include seismic swarms, InSAR-detected deformation signaling large magma batches, or gas emissions spikes—absent currently—while Poisson-distributed rarity and eight months remaining sustain uncertainty; weekly GVP reports and USGS notices will provide key updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
1 45%
0 39%
2 7.5%
3 3.2%
$911,566 Vol.
$911,566 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
39%
1
45%
2
8%
3
3%
4
2%
5+
3%
1 45%
0 39%
2 7.5%
3 3.2%
$911,566 Vol.
$911,566 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$422,411 Vol.
39%
1
$246,386 Vol.
45%
2
$19,315 Vol.
8%
3
$7,578 Vol.
3%
4
$12,646 Vol.
2%
5+
$204,895 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on the tightly matched probabilities for zero (38.5%) versus one (44.5%) large volcano eruptions—defined as Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥4, ejecting at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of material—in 2026 stems from the historical global baseline of roughly 0.6 such events annually, per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data, with none confirmed through late March despite 47 total eruptions. USGS monitoring reveals ongoing unrest at volcanoes like Kīlauea (elevated to WARNING alert in early April) and Sakurajima, but these typically produce effusive or low-VEI explosive activity rather than the magma dynamics needed for VEI≥4 blasts from subduction-zone stratovolcanoes. Differentiating factors include seismic swarms, InSAR-detected deformation signaling large magma batches, or gas emissions spikes—absent currently—while Poisson-distributed rarity and eight months remaining sustain uncertainty; weekly GVP reports and USGS notices will provide key updates.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$911,566End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on the tightly matched probabilities for zero (38.5%) versus one (44.5%) large volcano eruptions—defined as Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥4, ejecting at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of material—in 2026 stems from the historical global baseline of roughly 0.6 such events annually, per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data, with none confirmed through late March despite 47 total eruptions. USGS monitoring reveals ongoing unrest at volcanoes like Kīlauea (elevated to WARNING alert in early April) and Sakurajima, but these typically produce effusive or low-VEI explosive activity rather than the magma dynamics needed for VEI≥4 blasts from subduction-zone stratovolcanoes. Differentiating factors include seismic swarms, InSAR-detected deformation signaling large magma batches, or gas emissions spikes—absent currently—while Poisson-distributed rarity and eight months remaining sustain uncertainty; weekly GVP reports and USGS notices will provide key updates.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$911,566End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on the tightly matched probabilities for zero (38.5%) versus one (44.5%) large volcano eruptions—defined as Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥4, ejecting at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of material—in 2026 stems from the historical global baseline of roughly 0.6 such events annually, per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data, with none confirmed through late March despite 47 total eruptions. USGS monitoring reveals ongoing unrest at volcanoes like Kīlauea (elevated to WARNING alert in early April) and Sakurajima, but these typically produce effusive or low-VEI explosive activity rather than the magma dynamics needed for VEI≥4 blasts from subduction-zone stratovolcanoes. Differentiating factors include seismic swarms, InSAR-detected deformation signaling large magma batches, or gas emissions spikes—absent currently—while Poisson-distributed rarity and eight months remaining sustain uncertainty; weekly GVP reports and USGS notices will provide key updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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