Trader consensus favors 7 countries at 31% implied probability for total US aerial strikes in 2026, reflecting confirmed drone and airstrikes this year in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Iran, Venezuela, and one additional site amid ongoing counterterrorism under Operation Inherent Resolve and expanded Africa Command operations. The April 7 US-Iran ceasefire after 40 days of intense strikes ending major escalation has anchored sentiment, with a March 27 Somalia al-Shabaab airstrike as the freshest action but no new countries since. Leading 8 and 9 outcomes differentiate on tail risks like renewed Iranian retaliation, North Korean provocations, or fresh Latin American interventions, while consolidation behind 7 hinges on sustained de-escalation and focus on existing theaters through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
7 32.8%
9 13.1%
8 12.3%
6 10.4%
$821,362 Vol.
$821,362 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6
10%
7
33%
8
12%
9
13%
10
9%
11
3%
12
3%
13
2%
14
1%
15+
1%
7 32.8%
9 13.1%
8 12.3%
6 10.4%
$821,362 Vol.
$821,362 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6
$420,019 Vol.
10%
7
$5,403 Vol.
33%
8
$13,986 Vol.
12%
9
$10,535 Vol.
13%
10
$11,572 Vol.
9%
11
$8,226 Vol.
3%
12
$10,927 Vol.
3%
13
$25,605 Vol.
2%
14
$41,574 Vol.
1%
15+
$113,673 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors 7 countries at 31% implied probability for total US aerial strikes in 2026, reflecting confirmed drone and airstrikes this year in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Iran, Venezuela, and one additional site amid ongoing counterterrorism under Operation Inherent Resolve and expanded Africa Command operations. The April 7 US-Iran ceasefire after 40 days of intense strikes ending major escalation has anchored sentiment, with a March 27 Somalia al-Shabaab airstrike as the freshest action but no new countries since. Leading 8 and 9 outcomes differentiate on tail risks like renewed Iranian retaliation, North Korean provocations, or fresh Latin American interventions, while consolidation behind 7 hinges on sustained de-escalation and focus on existing theaters through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET
Volume
$821,362End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors 7 countries at 31% implied probability for total US aerial strikes in 2026, reflecting confirmed drone and airstrikes this year in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Iran, Venezuela, and one additional site amid ongoing counterterrorism under Operation Inherent Resolve and expanded Africa Command operations. The April 7 US-Iran ceasefire after 40 days of intense strikes ending major escalation has anchored sentiment, with a March 27 Somalia al-Shabaab airstrike as the freshest action but no new countries since. Leading 8 and 9 outcomes differentiate on tail risks like renewed Iranian retaliation, North Korean provocations, or fresh Latin American interventions, while consolidation behind 7 hinges on sustained de-escalation and focus on existing theaters through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$821,362End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors 7 countries at 31% implied probability for total US aerial strikes in 2026, reflecting confirmed drone and airstrikes this year in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Iran, Venezuela, and one additional site amid ongoing counterterrorism under Operation Inherent Resolve and expanded Africa Command operations. The April 7 US-Iran ceasefire after 40 days of intense strikes ending major escalation has anchored sentiment, with a March 27 Somalia al-Shabaab airstrike as the freshest action but no new countries since. Leading 8 and 9 outcomes differentiate on tail risks like renewed Iranian retaliation, North Korean provocations, or fresh Latin American interventions, while consolidation behind 7 hinges on sustained de-escalation and focus on existing theaters through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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