With all 48 teams confirmed following the March 31 playoff finales—where Bosnia-Herzegovina edged Italy on penalties and DR Congo defeated Jamaica—and the recent final draw, trader consensus prices Spain at a 17.3% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, narrowly ahead of France at 16.3% and England at 11.3%. Spain's edge stems from their EURO 2024 triumph and golden generation talents like Lamine Yamal thriving in qualifiers, while France bolstered sentiment with March victories over Brazil (2-1) and Colombia (3-1), showcasing Mbappé's form amid squad depth. The bunched odds reflect parity among European powerhouses, defending champion Argentina's reliance on aging Messi, Brazil's transitional phase, and the expanded format's group stage volatility introducing early upsets from dark horses like Curaçao.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSpain 17.4%
France 16.4%
England 11.3%
Argentina 8.8%
$621,547,753 Vol.
$621,547,753 Vol.
Spain
17%
France
16%
England
11%
Argentina
9%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
2%
Japan
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
Morocco
2%
USA
1%
Mexico
1%
Switzerland
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croatia
1%
Turkiye
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
Sweden
1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
South Korea
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Cezchia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Panama
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Iraq
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Spain 17.4%
France 16.4%
England 11.3%
Argentina 8.8%
$621,547,753 Vol.
$621,547,753 Vol.
Spain
17%
France
16%
England
11%
Argentina
9%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
2%
Japan
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
Morocco
2%
USA
1%
Mexico
1%
Switzerland
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croatia
1%
Turkiye
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
Sweden
1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
South Korea
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Cezchia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Panama
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Iraq
<1%
Qatar
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...With all 48 teams confirmed following the March 31 playoff finales—where Bosnia-Herzegovina edged Italy on penalties and DR Congo defeated Jamaica—and the recent final draw, trader consensus prices Spain at a 17.3% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, narrowly ahead of France at 16.3% and England at 11.3%. Spain's edge stems from their EURO 2024 triumph and golden generation talents like Lamine Yamal thriving in qualifiers, while France bolstered sentiment with March victories over Brazil (2-1) and Colombia (3-1), showcasing Mbappé's form amid squad depth. The bunched odds reflect parity among European powerhouses, defending champion Argentina's reliance on aging Messi, Brazil's transitional phase, and the expanded format's group stage volatility introducing early upsets from dark horses like Curaçao.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions