GPT 5 predictions & odds

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GPT-6 released by…?

GPT-6 released by…?

85%

December 31, 2026

$232K Vol.

$36.9K Liq.

41

Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

54%

Anthropic

$1M Vol.

$156K today

$180K Liq.

19

Ends in 3 months

Which company has best AI model end of June?

Which company has best AI model end of June?

59%

Anthropic

$3M Vol.

$399K Liq.

61

Ends in 3 months

OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?

OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?

57%

$16.9K Vol.

$6.6K Liq.

Ends in 9 months

Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?

Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?

29%

December 31, 2026

$252K Vol.

$1.8K Liq.

31

GPT-5.5 released by...?

GPT-5.5 released by...?

97%

June 30

$536K Vol.

$110K Liq.

GPT-5.5 released on...?

GPT-5.5 released on...?

34%

April 16

$15.4K Vol.

$20.2K Liq.

Ends in 16 days

Top AI model on April 17? (Style Control On)

Top AI model on April 17? (Style Control On)

94%

claude-opus-4-6-thinking

$7.5K Vol.

$58.7K Liq.

Ends in 3 days

Best AI model on April 17? (Style Control Off)

Best AI model on April 17? (Style Control Off)

92%

claude-opus-4-6-thinking

$1.6K Vol.

$51.7K Liq.

Ends in 3 days

OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

60%

50%+

$14.3K Vol.

$3.8K Liq.

1

Ends in 3 months

OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

55%

60%+

$20.3K Vol.

$3.0K Liq.

4

Ends in 3 months

Grok 5 released by...?

Grok 5 released by...?

16%

June 30, 2026

$136K Vol.

$5.8K Liq.

29

Ends in 3 months

ChatGPT Outage by...?

ChatGPT Outage by...?

33%

April 17

$2.5K Vol.

$1.4K Liq.

Ends in 3 days

Claude 5 released by…?

Claude 5 released by…?

49%

June 30, 2026

$3M Vol.

$98.9K Liq.

201

Ends in 16 days

What will happen before GTA VI?

What will happen before GTA VI?

88%

Drake releases Iceman

$21M Vol.

$2M Liq.

811

Ends in 4 months

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

36%

$290K Vol.

$11.7K Liq.

Ends in 9 months

GA-05 House Election Winner

GA-05 House Election Winner

94%

Democratic Party

$17.3K Vol.

$36.8K Liq.

Ends in 7 months

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

44%

1

$955K Vol.

$120K today

$19.5K Liq.

9

Ends in 12 months

Claude Mythos released by…?

Claude Mythos released by…?

27%

June 30

$229K Vol.

$23.3K Liq.

9

Ends in 16 days

Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Team Aether (BO3) - CCT North America Series #4 Playoffs

Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Team Aether (BO3) - CCT North America Series #4 Playoffs

56%

Marsborne

$750 Vol.

$2.0K Liq.

Ends in about 13 hours

Frequently Asked Questions

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Polymarket currently hosts 113 active markets for GPT 5 that lets you track or trade on predictions like “GPT-6 released by…?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $31.0M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “What will happen before GTA VI?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “What will happen before GTA VI?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 88% chance to Drake releases Iceman. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on GPT 5 predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.