Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Yes at 91% for the Virginia constitutional amendment allowing the Democrat-controlled General Assembly to temporarily redraw congressional districts before 2031, driven by the Yes campaign's massive financial edge—over $50 million raised versus under $4 million for opponents—fueling a dominant ad presence in the special election's final stretch. Recent polls, including a late-March Washington Post/Schar School survey showing 52% Yes among likely voters using ballot language, reflect consistent narrow majorities amid low-turnout expectations favoring motivated urban voters, with early voting as of April 10 exceeding 9% in Fairfax County. GOP rallies featuring Speaker Johnson and Governor Youngkin have mobilized opposition, but no poll shifts have emerged; late surges or litigation remain slim upset risks before the April 21 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$357,461 Vol.
$357,461 Vol.
Apr 21, 2026
$357,461 Vol.
$357,461 Vol.
Apr 21, 2026
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026 over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this proposed constitutional amendment is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in a statewide referendum by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is definitively cancelled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Yes at 91% for the Virginia constitutional amendment allowing the Democrat-controlled General Assembly to temporarily redraw congressional districts before 2031, driven by the Yes campaign's massive financial edge—over $50 million raised versus under $4 million for opponents—fueling a dominant ad presence in the special election's final stretch. Recent polls, including a late-March Washington Post/Schar School survey showing 52% Yes among likely voters using ballot language, reflect consistent narrow majorities amid low-turnout expectations favoring motivated urban voters, with early voting as of April 10 exceeding 9% in Fairfax County. GOP rallies featuring Speaker Johnson and Governor Youngkin have mobilized opposition, but no poll shifts have emerged; late surges or litigation remain slim upset risks before the April 21 vote.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026 over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this proposed constitutional amendment is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in a statewide referendum by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is definitively cancelled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this proposed constitutional amendment is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in a statewide referendum by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is definitively cancelled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
Market Opened: Feb 26, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Volume
$357,461End Date
Apr 21, 2026Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026 over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this proposed constitutional amendment is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in a statewide referendum by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is definitively cancelled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Yes at 91% for the Virginia constitutional amendment allowing the Democrat-controlled General Assembly to temporarily redraw congressional districts before 2031, driven by the Yes campaign's massive financial edge—over $50 million raised versus under $4 million for opponents—fueling a dominant ad presence in the special election's final stretch. Recent polls, including a late-March Washington Post/Schar School survey showing 52% Yes among likely voters using ballot language, reflect consistent narrow majorities amid low-turnout expectations favoring motivated urban voters, with early voting as of April 10 exceeding 9% in Fairfax County. GOP rallies featuring Speaker Johnson and Governor Youngkin have mobilized opposition, but no poll shifts have emerged; late surges or litigation remain slim upset risks before the April 21 vote.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026 over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this proposed constitutional amendment is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in a statewide referendum by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is definitively cancelled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this proposed constitutional amendment is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in a statewide referendum by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is definitively cancelled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
Volume
$357,461End Date
Apr 21, 2026Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Yes at 91% for the Virginia constitutional amendment allowing the Democrat-controlled General Assembly to temporarily redraw congressional districts before 2031, driven by the Yes campaign's massive financial edge—over $50 million raised versus under $4 million for opponents—fueling a dominant ad presence in the special election's final stretch. Recent polls, including a late-March Washington Post/Schar School survey showing 52% Yes among likely voters using ballot language, reflect consistent narrow majorities amid low-turnout expectations favoring motivated urban voters, with early voting as of April 10 exceeding 9% in Fairfax County. GOP rallies featuring Speaker Johnson and Governor Youngkin have mobilized opposition, but no poll shifts have emerged; late surges or litigation remain slim upset risks before the April 21 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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