Portugal holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 50.5% implied probability for producing the UEFA Europa League champion, driven by Braga and Porto securing 1-1 first-leg draws at home in the quarter-finals against Real Betis and Nottingham Forest, preserving aggregate-tie momentum ahead of away second legs on April 16. Spain trails closely at 44.5% thanks to Betis' resilient away draw despite Celta Vigo's 3-0 deficit to Freiburg, while England's 40.5% reflects Aston Villa's commanding 3-1 victory at Bologna coupled with Forest's solid hold on Porto. Germany's Freiburg surges with a massive lead, but Italy fades after Bologna's home loss; the bunched top probabilities underscore evenly matched knockout paths, home/away dynamics, and upset potential in the race to Istanbul.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUEFA Europa League: Home country of champion
UEFA Europa League: Home country of champion
Portugal 0
England 0
Germany 0
Italy 0
Portugal
52%
England
39%
Germany
38%
Italy
28%
Spain
43%
Portugal 0
England 0
Germany 0
Italy 0
Portugal
52%
England
39%
Germany
38%
Italy
28%
Spain
43%
If at any point it becomes impossible for any club from the listed country to win the UEFA Europa League (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026 UEFA Europa League is cancelled, postponed after June 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 UEFA Europa League champion has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 10, 2026, 6:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If at any point it becomes impossible for any club from the listed country to win the UEFA Europa League (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026 UEFA Europa League is cancelled, postponed after June 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 UEFA Europa League champion has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Portugal holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 50.5% implied probability for producing the UEFA Europa League champion, driven by Braga and Porto securing 1-1 first-leg draws at home in the quarter-finals against Real Betis and Nottingham Forest, preserving aggregate-tie momentum ahead of away second legs on April 16. Spain trails closely at 44.5% thanks to Betis' resilient away draw despite Celta Vigo's 3-0 deficit to Freiburg, while England's 40.5% reflects Aston Villa's commanding 3-1 victory at Bologna coupled with Forest's solid hold on Porto. Germany's Freiburg surges with a massive lead, but Italy fades after Bologna's home loss; the bunched top probabilities underscore evenly matched knockout paths, home/away dynamics, and upset potential in the race to Istanbul.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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