Trader consensus favors Sabrina Carpenter's "House Tour" music video surpassing 15 million YouTube views in its first week at 53% implied probability, driven by its explosive launch on April 6 with over 1 million views in the first three hours and star power from Margaret Qualley and Madelyn Cline in a campy Bling Ring-inspired heist narrative. Recent momentum surged from her Coachella Weekend 1 headline set on April 10, where she opened with the track, amplifying social media buzz and fan streams—hitting around 13 million views by April 12 amid parallels to her prior hit "Tears." Competitive dynamics with her catalog's strong video debuts position 14-15 million (30%) as a close second, with resolution hinging on final day surges before week 1 closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated# of views of Sabrina Carpenter's "House Tour" video on week 1?
# of views of Sabrina Carpenter's "House Tour" video on week 1?
15m+ 69%
14m-15m 36%
13m-14m <1%
<11m <1%
$49,340 Vol.
$49,340 Vol.
<11m
<1%
11m-12m
<1%
12m-13m
<1%
13m-14m
1%
14m-15m
36%
15m+
64%
15m+ 69%
14m-15m 36%
13m-14m <1%
<11m <1%
$49,340 Vol.
$49,340 Vol.
<11m
<1%
11m-12m
<1%
12m-13m
<1%
13m-14m
1%
14m-15m
36%
15m+
64%
This market will resolve according to the number of views Sabrina Carpenter's new "House Tour" YouTube video gets in the first 7 days after being posted.
If the relevant video becomes permanently unavailable by April 13, 2026, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this is the YouTube video for "House Tour" (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWoTyfPsqbE), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video.
Market Opened: Apr 7, 2026, 6:19 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of views Sabrina Carpenter's new "House Tour" YouTube video gets in the first 7 days after being posted.
If the relevant video becomes permanently unavailable by April 13, 2026, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this is the YouTube video for "House Tour" (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWoTyfPsqbE), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors Sabrina Carpenter's "House Tour" music video surpassing 15 million YouTube views in its first week at 53% implied probability, driven by its explosive launch on April 6 with over 1 million views in the first three hours and star power from Margaret Qualley and Madelyn Cline in a campy Bling Ring-inspired heist narrative. Recent momentum surged from her Coachella Weekend 1 headline set on April 10, where she opened with the track, amplifying social media buzz and fan streams—hitting around 13 million views by April 12 amid parallels to her prior hit "Tears." Competitive dynamics with her catalog's strong video debuts position 14-15 million (30%) as a close second, with resolution hinging on final day surges before week 1 closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions