The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's near-certain frontrunner status at 99.9% implied probability stems from its explosive April 1 release, fueled by massive Thursday previews exceeding $48 million and franchise momentum from the 2023 Super Mario Bros. blockbuster that grossed over $1.3 billion worldwide. Illumination's family-friendly animation, stellar presales, and broad appeal have propelled it to dominate early weekend estimates, far outpacing holdover Project Hail Mary in its third frame, fading Pixar holdover Hoppers, and limited-release newcomers The Drama—an A24 Zendaya-Pattinson indie—and faith-based A Great Awakening. Traders' strong consensus reflects skin-in-the-game confidence in its opening weekend supremacy, with realistic upsets only possible via freak weather disruptions or anomalous tracking errors, both highly improbable given real-time box office data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest grossing movie this weekend (April 3)
Highest grossing movie this weekend (April 3)
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie 99.8%
Project Hail Mary <1%
Hoppers <1%
The Drama <1%
$49,079 Vol.
$49,079 Vol.
Apr 3, 2026
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
100%
Project Hail Mary
<1%
Hoppers
<1%
The Drama
<1%
A Great Awakening
<1%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie 99.8%
Project Hail Mary <1%
Hoppers <1%
The Drama <1%
$49,079 Vol.
$49,079 Vol.
Apr 3, 2026
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
$38,822 Vol.
100%
Project Hail Mary
$4,988 Vol.
<1%
Hoppers
$1,713 Vol.
<1%
The Drama
$1,815 Vol.
<1%
A Great Awakening
$1,741 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the film which grosses the most domestically in theaters for the 3 day weekend of April 3 - 5. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 3 - 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If more than one movie reports the same gross for the 3-day weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If no movie plays in theaters during the specified weekend, this market will resolve to "Other".The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's near-certain frontrunner status at 99.9% implied probability stems from its explosive April 1 release, fueled by massive Thursday previews exceeding $48 million and franchise momentum from the 2023 Super Mario Bros. blockbuster that grossed over $1.3 billion worldwide. Illumination's family-friendly animation, stellar presales, and broad appeal have propelled it to dominate early weekend estimates, far outpacing holdover Project Hail Mary in its third frame, fading Pixar holdover Hoppers, and limited-release newcomers The Drama—an A24 Zendaya-Pattinson indie—and faith-based A Great Awakening. Traders' strong consensus reflects skin-in-the-game confidence in its opening weekend supremacy, with realistic upsets only possible via freak weather disruptions or anomalous tracking errors, both highly improbable given real-time box office data.
This market will resolve according to the film which grosses the most domestically in theaters for the 3 day weekend of April 3 - 5. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 3 - 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If more than one movie reports the same gross for the 3-day weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If no movie plays in theaters during the specified weekend, this market will resolve to "Other".
If more than one movie reports the same gross for the 3-day weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If no movie plays in theaters during the specified weekend, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Mar 30, 2026, 5:55 PM ET
Volume
$49,079End Date
Apr 3, 2026Market Opened
Mar 30, 2026, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the film which grosses the most domestically in theaters for the 3 day weekend of April 3 - 5. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 3 - 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If more than one movie reports the same gross for the 3-day weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If no movie plays in theaters during the specified weekend, this market will resolve to "Other".The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's near-certain frontrunner status at 99.9% implied probability stems from its explosive April 1 release, fueled by massive Thursday previews exceeding $48 million and franchise momentum from the 2023 Super Mario Bros. blockbuster that grossed over $1.3 billion worldwide. Illumination's family-friendly animation, stellar presales, and broad appeal have propelled it to dominate early weekend estimates, far outpacing holdover Project Hail Mary in its third frame, fading Pixar holdover Hoppers, and limited-release newcomers The Drama—an A24 Zendaya-Pattinson indie—and faith-based A Great Awakening. Traders' strong consensus reflects skin-in-the-game confidence in its opening weekend supremacy, with realistic upsets only possible via freak weather disruptions or anomalous tracking errors, both highly improbable given real-time box office data.
This market will resolve according to the film which grosses the most domestically in theaters for the 3 day weekend of April 3 - 5. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 3 - 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If more than one movie reports the same gross for the 3-day weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If no movie plays in theaters during the specified weekend, this market will resolve to "Other".
If more than one movie reports the same gross for the 3-day weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If no movie plays in theaters during the specified weekend, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$49,079End Date
Apr 3, 2026Market Opened
Mar 30, 2026, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's near-certain frontrunner status at 99.9% implied probability stems from its explosive April 1 release, fueled by massive Thursday previews exceeding $48 million and franchise momentum from the 2023 Super Mario Bros. blockbuster that grossed over $1.3 billion worldwide. Illumination's family-friendly animation, stellar presales, and broad appeal have propelled it to dominate early weekend estimates, far outpacing holdover Project Hail Mary in its third frame, fading Pixar holdover Hoppers, and limited-release newcomers The Drama—an A24 Zendaya-Pattinson indie—and faith-based A Great Awakening. Traders' strong consensus reflects skin-in-the-game confidence in its opening weekend supremacy, with realistic upsets only possible via freak weather disruptions or anomalous tracking errors, both highly improbable given real-time box office data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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