Escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions, including Strait of Hormuz risks from Iran-Israel conflicts, have propelled WTI crude oil prices above $100 per barrel this week, fueling a 65% market-implied probability for June settlement exceeding $84 on Polymarket—aligned with June 2026 futures trading near $96. This risk premium overrides bearish U.S. EIA data showing crude inventories climbing 3.1 million barrels to 464.7 million for the week ended April 3, amid low global stocks and OPEC+ modest output hikes announced early April. Steady demand outlooks and supply discipline underpin trader consensus, with the next EIA inventory report on April 15 as a key near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhat will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?
What will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?
>$84 65%
$77-$84 15%
$70-$77 7.8%
$63-$70 5.4%
$127,326 Vol.
$127,326 Vol.
<$42
4%
$42-$49
1%
$49-$56
2%
$56-$63
4%
$63-$70
5%
$70-$77
8%
$77-$84
15%
>$84
65%
>$84 65%
$77-$84 15%
$70-$77 7.8%
$63-$70 5.4%
$127,326 Vol.
$127,326 Vol.
<$42
4%
$42-$49
1%
$49-$56
2%
$56-$63
4%
$63-$70
5%
$70-$77
8%
$77-$84
15%
>$84
65%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Market Opened: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions, including Strait of Hormuz risks from Iran-Israel conflicts, have propelled WTI crude oil prices above $100 per barrel this week, fueling a 65% market-implied probability for June settlement exceeding $84 on Polymarket—aligned with June 2026 futures trading near $96. This risk premium overrides bearish U.S. EIA data showing crude inventories climbing 3.1 million barrels to 464.7 million for the week ended April 3, amid low global stocks and OPEC+ modest output hikes announced early April. Steady demand outlooks and supply discipline underpin trader consensus, with the next EIA inventory report on April 15 as a key near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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