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World·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election

Market icon
World·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election

Flávio Bolsonaro 39.2%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 39%

Renan Santos 6.9%

Fernando Haddad 4.6%

Polymarket

$49,372,613 Vol.

Flávio Bolsonaro 39.2%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 39%

Renan Santos 6.9%

Fernando Haddad 4.6%

Polymarket

$49,372,613 Vol.

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Flávio Bolsonaro

$4,024,443 Vol.

39%

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Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$4,504,690 Vol.

39%

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Renan Santos

$3,984,655 Vol.

7%

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Fernando Haddad

$3,447,657 Vol.

5%

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Camilo Santana

$1,111,965 Vol.

3%

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Ronaldo Caiado

$1,614,068 Vol.

2%

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Romeu Zema

$592,145 Vol.

2%

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Jair Bolsonaro

$2,697,112 Vol.

1%

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Geraldo Alckmin

$968,852 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Bolsonaro

$3,700,141 Vol.

<1%

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Aldo Rebelo

$606,489 Vol.

<1%

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Eduardo Bolsonaro

$6,330,360 Vol.

<1%

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Tarcisio de Freitas

$7,119,714 Vol.

<1%

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Ratinho Júnior

$6,079,460 Vol.

<1%

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Eduardo Leite

$2,594,300 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent Datafolha (April 7-9) and Ideia (April 3-7) polls underscore the razor-thin contest for Brazil's October 4 presidential first round, showing incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead 39-40% to Senator Flávio Bolsonaro's 35-37%, but statistical ties in runoffs with Flávio numerically edging ahead within margins of error. This trader consensus—Flávio at 39.3% implied probability versus Lula's 38.5%—reflects Flávio's surge consolidating his father's conservative base amid Lula's evaporating leads and economic headwinds. The race stays glued by regional divides, undecided voters, and low third-place showings like Renan Santos (6.9%); separation could emerge from party endorsements, debates, or shifts in approval ratings before the potential October 25 runoff.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$49,372,613
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent Datafolha (April 7-9) and Ideia (April 3-7) polls underscore the razor-thin contest for Brazil's October 4 presidential first round, showing incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead 39-40% to Senator Flávio Bolsonaro's 35-37%, but statistical ties in runoffs with Flávio numerically edging ahead within margins of error. This trader consensus—Flávio at 39.3% implied probability versus Lula's 38.5%—reflects Flávio's surge consolidating his father's conservative base amid Lula's evaporating leads and economic headwinds. The race stays glued by regional divides, undecided voters, and low third-place showings like Renan Santos (6.9%); separation could emerge from party endorsements, debates, or shifts in approval ratings before the potential October 25 runoff.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$49,372,613
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Related

Market icon

Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

61%
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Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

36%
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Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?

41%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Brazil Presidential Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Flávio Bolsonaro" at 39%, followed by "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" at 39%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Brazil Presidential Election" has generated $49.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Brazil Presidential Election," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Brazil Presidential Election" is "Flávio Bolsonaro" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" at 39%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Brazil Presidential Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.