Market icon
Finance·Business

How much will SpaceX raise in its IPO?

Market icon
Finance·Business

How much will SpaceX raise in its IPO?

Polymarket

$132,762 Vol.

Polymarket

$132,762 Vol.

<40B

$9,451 Vol.

5%

40-50B

$5,305 Vol.

<1%

50-60B

$33,028 Vol.

20%

60-70B

$14,009 Vol.

19%

70-80B

$23,066 Vol.

36%

80-90B

$15,242 Vol.

10%

90-100B

$9,604 Vol.

2%

100-110B

$7,477 Vol.

<1%

110-120B

$8,134 Vol.

1%

120B+

$7,447 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing. The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered. Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered. If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 36% implied probability for SpaceX raising $70-80 billion in its anticipated 2026 IPO, reflecting recent Bloomberg and Reuters reports detailing a $75 billion target at a $1.75 trillion valuation—potentially the largest ever—following a confidential S-1 filing around April 1. This clusters sentiment after December 2025's $800 billion tender offer and Starlink's surging revenue, projected at $22-24 billion for 2026, bolstering growth narrative amid merger talks with xAI. Lower buckets like $50-60 billion (19.5%) and $60-70 billion (18.5%) capture downside risks from market volatility or scaled-back ambitions, with an early June roadshow as the key near-term catalyst to refine pricing expectations.

This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.

The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.

Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.

If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.

If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$132,762
Market Opened
Mar 25, 2026, 6:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing. The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered. Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered. If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing. The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered. Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered. If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 36% implied probability for SpaceX raising $70-80 billion in its anticipated 2026 IPO, reflecting recent Bloomberg and Reuters reports detailing a $75 billion target at a $1.75 trillion valuation—potentially the largest ever—following a confidential S-1 filing around April 1. This clusters sentiment after December 2025's $800 billion tender offer and Starlink's surging revenue, projected at $22-24 billion for 2026, bolstering growth narrative amid merger talks with xAI. Lower buckets like $50-60 billion (19.5%) and $60-70 billion (18.5%) capture downside risks from market volatility or scaled-back ambitions, with an early June roadshow as the key near-term catalyst to refine pricing expectations.

This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.

The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.

Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.

If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.

If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$132,762
Market Opened
Mar 25, 2026, 6:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing. The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered. Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered. If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How much will SpaceX raise in its IPO?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "70-80B" at 36%, followed by "50-60B" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 36¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How much will SpaceX raise in its IPO?" has generated $132.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 25, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How much will SpaceX raise in its IPO?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How much will SpaceX raise in its IPO?" is "70-80B" at 36%, meaning the market assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "50-60B" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How much will SpaceX raise in its IPO?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.