Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 3rd Congressional District into Democratic territory—now rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report—with Kamala Harris carrying it by 10 points in 2024, prompting incumbent Rep. Kevin Kiley (R) to forgo reelection there in February 2026. Multiple Democrats, led by Rep. Ami Bera with nearly $2 million cash-on-hand as of late 2025, dominate the field alongside Chris Bennett, Heidi Hall, and Lyndon Cervantes; Republican Christine Bish trails with under $40,000. The June 2 top-two primary likely advances two Democrats to the November general, driving trader consensus to a 90% implied probability for Democratic Party victory despite slim GOP upset potential from primary surprises.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-03 House Election Winner
CA-03 House Election Winner
$11,646 Vol.
$11,646 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
90%
Republican Party
7%
$11,646 Vol.
$11,646 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$6,585 Vol.
90%
Republican Party
$5,061 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 3rd Congressional District into Democratic territory—now rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report—with Kamala Harris carrying it by 10 points in 2024, prompting incumbent Rep. Kevin Kiley (R) to forgo reelection there in February 2026. Multiple Democrats, led by Rep. Ami Bera with nearly $2 million cash-on-hand as of late 2025, dominate the field alongside Chris Bennett, Heidi Hall, and Lyndon Cervantes; Republican Christine Bish trails with under $40,000. The June 2 top-two primary likely advances two Democrats to the November general, driving trader consensus to a 90% implied probability for Democratic Party victory despite slim GOP upset potential from primary surprises.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$11,646End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 3rd Congressional District into Democratic territory—now rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report—with Kamala Harris carrying it by 10 points in 2024, prompting incumbent Rep. Kevin Kiley (R) to forgo reelection there in February 2026. Multiple Democrats, led by Rep. Ami Bera with nearly $2 million cash-on-hand as of late 2025, dominate the field alongside Chris Bennett, Heidi Hall, and Lyndon Cervantes; Republican Christine Bish trails with under $40,000. The June 2 top-two primary likely advances two Democrats to the November general, driving trader consensus to a 90% implied probability for Democratic Party victory despite slim GOP upset potential from primary surprises.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$11,646End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 3rd Congressional District into Democratic territory—now rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report—with Kamala Harris carrying it by 10 points in 2024, prompting incumbent Rep. Kevin Kiley (R) to forgo reelection there in February 2026. Multiple Democrats, led by Rep. Ami Bera with nearly $2 million cash-on-hand as of late 2025, dominate the field alongside Chris Bennett, Heidi Hall, and Lyndon Cervantes; Republican Christine Bish trails with under $40,000. The June 2 top-two primary likely advances two Democrats to the November general, driving trader consensus to a 90% implied probability for Democratic Party victory despite slim GOP upset potential from primary surprises.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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