Polymarket traders price a 62.4% implied probability for Brazil's 2026 annual IPCA inflation falling in the 5.00-5.49% range, reflecting heightened upside risks from the March 2026 print surging 0.88% month-over-month—well above the 0.77% consensus—driven by 4.59% gasoline spikes amid Iran war-fueled oil shocks. This catalyzed the Banco Central do Brasil's weekly Focus survey to lift its 2026 median forecast to 4.36% for the fourth consecutive week, breaching the 4.5% target ceiling and outpacing the prior 3.81% February annual rate. With Selic at 14.75% post-March Copom cut, persistent energy and food pressures sustain trader caution above economist consensus, ahead of April data and May policy meeting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5.00-5.49% 63.2%
4.50-4.99% 19.4%
4.00-4.49% 8%
7.00%+ 5.1%
$44,356 Vol.
$44,356 Vol.
Jan 12, 2027
<3.00%
<1%
3.00-3.49%
<1%
3.50-3.99%
4%
4.00-4.49%
8%
4.50-4.99%
19%
5.00-5.49%
63%
5.50-5.99%
5%
6.00-6.49%
5%
6.50-6.99%
5%
7.00%+
5%
5.00-5.49% 63.2%
4.50-4.99% 19.4%
4.00-4.49% 8%
7.00%+ 5.1%
$44,356 Vol.
$44,356 Vol.
Jan 12, 2027
<3.00%
$3,181 Vol.
<1%
3.00-3.49%
$3,698 Vol.
<1%
3.50-3.99%
$7,088 Vol.
4%
4.00-4.49%
$4,117 Vol.
8%
4.50-4.99%
$5,910 Vol.
19%
5.00-5.49%
$5,184 Vol.
63%
5.50-5.99%
$4,086 Vol.
5%
6.00-6.49%
$4,218 Vol.
5%
6.50-6.99%
$3,824 Vol.
5%
7.00%+
$3,049 Vol.
5%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlPolymarket traders price a 62.4% implied probability for Brazil's 2026 annual IPCA inflation falling in the 5.00-5.49% range, reflecting heightened upside risks from the March 2026 print surging 0.88% month-over-month—well above the 0.77% consensus—driven by 4.59% gasoline spikes amid Iran war-fueled oil shocks. This catalyzed the Banco Central do Brasil's weekly Focus survey to lift its 2026 median forecast to 4.36% for the fourth consecutive week, breaching the 4.5% target ceiling and outpacing the prior 3.81% February annual rate. With Selic at 14.75% post-March Copom cut, persistent energy and food pressures sustain trader caution above economist consensus, ahead of April data and May policy meeting.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Market Opened: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$44,356End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlPolymarket traders price a 62.4% implied probability for Brazil's 2026 annual IPCA inflation falling in the 5.00-5.49% range, reflecting heightened upside risks from the March 2026 print surging 0.88% month-over-month—well above the 0.77% consensus—driven by 4.59% gasoline spikes amid Iran war-fueled oil shocks. This catalyzed the Banco Central do Brasil's weekly Focus survey to lift its 2026 median forecast to 4.36% for the fourth consecutive week, breaching the 4.5% target ceiling and outpacing the prior 3.81% February annual rate. With Selic at 14.75% post-March Copom cut, persistent energy and food pressures sustain trader caution above economist consensus, ahead of April data and May policy meeting.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$44,356End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 62.4% implied probability for Brazil's 2026 annual IPCA inflation falling in the 5.00-5.49% range, reflecting heightened upside risks from the March 2026 print surging 0.88% month-over-month—well above the 0.77% consensus—driven by 4.59% gasoline spikes amid Iran war-fueled oil shocks. This catalyzed the Banco Central do Brasil's weekly Focus survey to lift its 2026 median forecast to 4.36% for the fourth consecutive week, breaching the 4.5% target ceiling and outpacing the prior 3.81% February annual rate. With Selic at 14.75% post-March Copom cut, persistent energy and food pressures sustain trader caution above economist consensus, ahead of April data and May policy meeting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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