Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward no AWS service disruption by April 30, with "No" at 55.5% implied probability, driven by over a month's stability across all regions following the early March 2026 outages in ME-SOUTH-1 (Bahrain) and ME-CENTRAL-1 (UAE). Those incidents stemmed from physical infrastructure damage amid regional drone strikes, impacting dozens of services like EC2, S3, and Lambda before full recovery by March 3. No new operational issues, elevated error rates, or API failures have surfaced on the AWS Health Dashboard since, underscoring the platform's multi-region resilience and robust disaster recovery. While historical precedents like software deployments or geopolitical risks keep "Yes" viable at around 44.5%, the lack of fresh catalysts bolsters confidence in continued uptime through month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
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Apr 30, 2026
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Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward no AWS service disruption by April 30, with "No" at 55.5% implied probability, driven by over a month's stability across all regions following the early March 2026 outages in ME-SOUTH-1 (Bahrain) and ME-CENTRAL-1 (UAE). Those incidents stemmed from physical infrastructure damage amid regional drone strikes, impacting dozens of services like EC2, S3, and Lambda before full recovery by March 3. No new operational issues, elevated error rates, or API failures have surfaced on the AWS Health Dashboard since, underscoring the platform's multi-region resilience and robust disaster recovery. While historical precedents like software deployments or geopolitical risks keep "Yes" viable at around 44.5%, the lack of fresh catalysts bolsters confidence in continued uptime through month-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 12:59 PM ET
Volume
$4,690End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 12:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward no AWS service disruption by April 30, with "No" at 55.5% implied probability, driven by over a month's stability across all regions following the early March 2026 outages in ME-SOUTH-1 (Bahrain) and ME-CENTRAL-1 (UAE). Those incidents stemmed from physical infrastructure damage amid regional drone strikes, impacting dozens of services like EC2, S3, and Lambda before full recovery by March 3. No new operational issues, elevated error rates, or API failures have surfaced on the AWS Health Dashboard since, underscoring the platform's multi-region resilience and robust disaster recovery. While historical precedents like software deployments or geopolitical risks keep "Yes" viable at around 44.5%, the lack of fresh catalysts bolsters confidence in continued uptime through month-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).
Volume
$4,690End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 12:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward no AWS service disruption by April 30, with "No" at 55.5% implied probability, driven by over a month's stability across all regions following the early March 2026 outages in ME-SOUTH-1 (Bahrain) and ME-CENTRAL-1 (UAE). Those incidents stemmed from physical infrastructure damage amid regional drone strikes, impacting dozens of services like EC2, S3, and Lambda before full recovery by March 3. No new operational issues, elevated error rates, or API failures have surfaced on the AWS Health Dashboard since, underscoring the platform's multi-region resilience and robust disaster recovery. While historical precedents like software deployments or geopolitical risks keep "Yes" viable at around 44.5%, the lack of fresh catalysts bolsters confidence in continued uptime through month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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