Trader consensus prices an arrest of Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei before June 30, 2026, at just 2.9%, reflecting the complete absence of any public investigations, indictments, or charges against him by DOJ or other law enforcement. Recent tensions stem from Anthropic's March civil lawsuit challenging the Department of Defense's supply chain risk designation after refusing "any lawful use" access to its Claude AI model over domestic surveillance and autonomous weapons concerns—a contractual dispute with no criminal elements. No procedural developments, such as arraignments or probes, have emerged in the past 30 days to suggest otherwise. Late-breaking scenarios like national security violations or regulatory breaches could alter this, but structural barriers to sudden detention remain high absent evidence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$146,177 Vol.
$146,177 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$146,177 Vol.
$146,177 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices an arrest of Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei before June 30, 2026, at just 2.9%, reflecting the complete absence of any public investigations, indictments, or charges against him by DOJ or other law enforcement. Recent tensions stem from Anthropic's March civil lawsuit challenging the Department of Defense's supply chain risk designation after refusing "any lawful use" access to its Claude AI model over domestic surveillance and autonomous weapons concerns—a contractual dispute with no criminal elements. No procedural developments, such as arraignments or probes, have emerged in the past 30 days to suggest otherwise. Late-breaking scenarios like national security violations or regulatory breaches could alter this, but structural barriers to sudden detention remain high absent evidence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
Volume
$146,177End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices an arrest of Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei before June 30, 2026, at just 2.9%, reflecting the complete absence of any public investigations, indictments, or charges against him by DOJ or other law enforcement. Recent tensions stem from Anthropic's March civil lawsuit challenging the Department of Defense's supply chain risk designation after refusing "any lawful use" access to its Claude AI model over domestic surveillance and autonomous weapons concerns—a contractual dispute with no criminal elements. No procedural developments, such as arraignments or probes, have emerged in the past 30 days to suggest otherwise. Late-breaking scenarios like national security violations or regulatory breaches could alter this, but structural barriers to sudden detention remain high absent evidence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$146,177End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an arrest of Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei before June 30, 2026, at just 2.9%, reflecting the complete absence of any public investigations, indictments, or charges against him by DOJ or other law enforcement. Recent tensions stem from Anthropic's March civil lawsuit challenging the Department of Defense's supply chain risk designation after refusing "any lawful use" access to its Claude AI model over domestic surveillance and autonomous weapons concerns—a contractual dispute with no criminal elements. No procedural developments, such as arraignments or probes, have emerged in the past 30 days to suggest otherwise. Late-breaking scenarios like national security violations or regulatory breaches could alter this, but structural barriers to sudden detention remain high absent evidence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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