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Sports·UFC

Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?

Market icon
Sports·UFC

Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?

Islam Makhachev 75%

Michael Morales 10%

Ian Machado Garry 8%

Carlos Prates 3.4%

Polymarket
NEW

Islam Makhachev 75%

Michael Morales 10%

Ian Machado Garry 8%

Carlos Prates 3.4%

Polymarket
NEW

Islam Makhachev

$3,908 Vol.

75%

Michael Morales

$0 Vol.

10%

Ian Machado Garry

$1,320 Vol.

11%

Carlos Prates

$0 Vol.

3%

Kamaru Usman

$828 Vol.

3%

Jack Della Maddalena

$1,318 Vol.

2%

Joaquin Buckley

$0 Vol.

1%

Sean Brady

$874 Vol.

1%

Belal Muhammad

$0 Vol.

1%

Leon Edwards

$634 Vol.

<1%

Shavkat Rakhmonov

$0 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).Islam Makhachev's overwhelming 75% implied probability as reigning UFC welterweight champion stems from his dominant late-2025 title capture over Jack Della Maddalena after vacating lightweight, showcasing superior grappling and finishing ability at 170 pounds without extreme weight cuts. Traders view his planned first title defense around July-August 2026 against a top contender as winnable, bolstered by his pound-for-pound dominance and minimal activity demands. Ian Machado Garry's 11% reflects his recent co-main event victory over former champ Belal Muhammad, boosting marketability for a shot, while Michael Morales' 9.5% highlights his undefeated streak and claims to the No. 1 spot amid ongoing contender debates. Lower odds for Prates, Usman, and others underscore their distance from title contention amid the division's depth.

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.

If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Volume
$8,883
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).Islam Makhachev's overwhelming 75% implied probability as reigning UFC welterweight champion stems from his dominant late-2025 title capture over Jack Della Maddalena after vacating lightweight, showcasing superior grappling and finishing ability at 170 pounds without extreme weight cuts. Traders view his planned first title defense around July-August 2026 against a top contender as winnable, bolstered by his pound-for-pound dominance and minimal activity demands. Ian Machado Garry's 11% reflects his recent co-main event victory over former champ Belal Muhammad, boosting marketability for a shot, while Michael Morales' 9.5% highlights his undefeated streak and claims to the No. 1 spot amid ongoing contender debates. Lower odds for Prates, Usman, and others underscore their distance from title contention amid the division's depth.

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.

If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Volume
$8,883
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Islam Makhachev" at 75%, followed by "Ian Machado Garry" at 11%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 75¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jan 4, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?" is "Islam Makhachev" at 75%, meaning the market assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Ian Machado Garry" at 11%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.