Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader since 1989, was killed in late February 2026 U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, prompting the Assembly of Experts to appoint his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor on March 8 amid a temporary three-member leadership council. Recent intelligence assessments and media reports from early April indicate Mojtaba sustained severe injuries in the strikes—including possible leg amputation, disfigurement, and a coma—leaving him allegedly incapacitated and out of public view, though Iranian officials like Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi insist he remains in excellent health and in control. Ongoing military escalations, failed U.S.-Iran talks in Pakistan, and Swiss mediation offers heighten uncertainty over effective governance and potential further succession under Article 111 of Iran's constitution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$8,671,671 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
April 30
10%
May 31
20%
June 30
27%
December 31
38%
$8,671,671 Vol.
April 30
$2,937,001 Vol.
10%
May 31
$429,788 Vol.
20%
June 30
$409,151 Vol.
27%
December 31
$1,664,819 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader since 1989, was killed in late February 2026 U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, prompting the Assembly of Experts to appoint his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor on March 8 amid a temporary three-member leadership council. Recent intelligence assessments and media reports from early April indicate Mojtaba sustained severe injuries in the strikes—including possible leg amputation, disfigurement, and a coma—leaving him allegedly incapacitated and out of public view, though Iranian officials like Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi insist he remains in excellent health and in control. Ongoing military escalations, failed U.S.-Iran talks in Pakistan, and Swiss mediation offers heighten uncertainty over effective governance and potential further succession under Article 111 of Iran's constitution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
Volume
$8,671,671End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader since 1989, was killed in late February 2026 U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, prompting the Assembly of Experts to appoint his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor on March 8 amid a temporary three-member leadership council. Recent intelligence assessments and media reports from early April indicate Mojtaba sustained severe injuries in the strikes—including possible leg amputation, disfigurement, and a coma—leaving him allegedly incapacitated and out of public view, though Iranian officials like Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi insist he remains in excellent health and in control. Ongoing military escalations, failed U.S.-Iran talks in Pakistan, and Swiss mediation offers heighten uncertainty over effective governance and potential further succession under Article 111 of Iran's constitution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$8,671,671End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader since 1989, was killed in late February 2026 U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, prompting the Assembly of Experts to appoint his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor on March 8 amid a temporary three-member leadership council. Recent intelligence assessments and media reports from early April indicate Mojtaba sustained severe injuries in the strikes—including possible leg amputation, disfigurement, and a coma—leaving him allegedly incapacitated and out of public view, though Iranian officials like Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi insist he remains in excellent health and in control. Ongoing military escalations, failed U.S.-Iran talks in Pakistan, and Swiss mediation offers heighten uncertainty over effective governance and potential further succession under Article 111 of Iran's constitution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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