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Politics·France

French election called by...?

Market icon
Politics·France

French election called by...?

$1,055,432 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$1,055,432 Vol.

Polymarket

June 30, 2026

$73,798 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by September 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by October 10, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by October 17, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. France's minority government, operating in a hung National Assembly since the 2024 snap legislative elections, has maintained stability following March 2026 municipal elections where far-right National Rally gained in smaller towns but failed to seize major cities like Paris and Marseille, held by center-left alliances. This outcome eased immediate pressures for dissolution, as centrists leveraged vote transfers against extremes. The government survived no-confidence motions in January 2026 over the budget using Article 49.3, avoiding collapse despite opposition from National Rally and New Popular Front. President Macron retains dissolution authority but faces high risks ahead of the 2027 presidential race; traders watch 2026 budget passage and potential no-confidence thresholds needing an absolute majority.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$1,055,432
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Market Opened
Oct 22, 2025, 1:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by September 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by October 10, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by October 17, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. France's minority government, operating in a hung National Assembly since the 2024 snap legislative elections, has maintained stability following March 2026 municipal elections where far-right National Rally gained in smaller towns but failed to seize major cities like Paris and Marseille, held by center-left alliances. This outcome eased immediate pressures for dissolution, as centrists leveraged vote transfers against extremes. The government survived no-confidence motions in January 2026 over the budget using Article 49.3, avoiding collapse despite opposition from National Rally and New Popular Front. President Macron retains dissolution authority but faces high risks ahead of the 2027 presidential race; traders watch 2026 budget passage and potential no-confidence thresholds needing an absolute majority.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$1,055,432
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Market Opened
Oct 22, 2025, 1:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"French election called by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "June 30, 2026" at 6%, followed by "September 15" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 6¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 6% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "French election called by...?" has generated $1.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 26, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "French election called by...?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "French election called by...?" is "June 30, 2026" at just 6%, with "September 15" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "French election called by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.