Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an implied probability of 21% for the official USD/ARS exchange rate ending 2026 in the 1600–1699 bracket, narrowly ahead of sub-1600 at 17.5%, reflecting tight competition amid uncertainty over Argentina's disinflation trajectory under President Milei's crawling peg regime. Recent BCRA surveys lifted 2026 inflation forecasts to 29.1% following an oil shock, with February's annual rate steady at 33.1% and monthly at 2.9%, pressuring gradual peso depreciation within January-introduced exchange bands expanding at inflation pace. April 10 FX rule tweaks addressed surging capital outflow costs, bolstering reserves but highlighting vulnerabilities; sub-1600 odds hinge on faster disinflation and fiscal surplus maintenance, while higher brackets risk policy slippage or external shocks ahead of monthly inflation data. Current rate stands at 1,385 ARS/USD.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<1600.00 18%
1900.00–1999.99 14.3%
1800.00–1899.99 12.2%
2000.00+ 11.3%
$15,775 Vol.
$15,775 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<1600.00
18%
1600.00–1699.99
18%
1700.00–1799.99
16%
1800.00–1899.99
12%
1900.00–1999.99
14%
2000.00+
11%
<1600.00 18%
1900.00–1999.99 14.3%
1800.00–1899.99 12.2%
2000.00+ 11.3%
$15,775 Vol.
$15,775 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<1600.00
$1,195 Vol.
18%
1600.00–1699.99
$1,005 Vol.
18%
1700.00–1799.99
$929 Vol.
16%
1800.00–1899.99
$713 Vol.
12%
1900.00–1999.99
$10,952 Vol.
14%
2000.00+
$979 Vol.
11%
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an implied probability of 21% for the official USD/ARS exchange rate ending 2026 in the 1600–1699 bracket, narrowly ahead of sub-1600 at 17.5%, reflecting tight competition amid uncertainty over Argentina's disinflation trajectory under President Milei's crawling peg regime. Recent BCRA surveys lifted 2026 inflation forecasts to 29.1% following an oil shock, with February's annual rate steady at 33.1% and monthly at 2.9%, pressuring gradual peso depreciation within January-introduced exchange bands expanding at inflation pace. April 10 FX rule tweaks addressed surging capital outflow costs, bolstering reserves but highlighting vulnerabilities; sub-1600 odds hinge on faster disinflation and fiscal surplus maintenance, while higher brackets risk policy slippage or external shocks ahead of monthly inflation data. Current rate stands at 1,385 ARS/USD.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$15,775End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an implied probability of 21% for the official USD/ARS exchange rate ending 2026 in the 1600–1699 bracket, narrowly ahead of sub-1600 at 17.5%, reflecting tight competition amid uncertainty over Argentina's disinflation trajectory under President Milei's crawling peg regime. Recent BCRA surveys lifted 2026 inflation forecasts to 29.1% following an oil shock, with February's annual rate steady at 33.1% and monthly at 2.9%, pressuring gradual peso depreciation within January-introduced exchange bands expanding at inflation pace. April 10 FX rule tweaks addressed surging capital outflow costs, bolstering reserves but highlighting vulnerabilities; sub-1600 odds hinge on faster disinflation and fiscal surplus maintenance, while higher brackets risk policy slippage or external shocks ahead of monthly inflation data. Current rate stands at 1,385 ARS/USD.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$15,775End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an implied probability of 21% for the official USD/ARS exchange rate ending 2026 in the 1600–1699 bracket, narrowly ahead of sub-1600 at 17.5%, reflecting tight competition amid uncertainty over Argentina's disinflation trajectory under President Milei's crawling peg regime. Recent BCRA surveys lifted 2026 inflation forecasts to 29.1% following an oil shock, with February's annual rate steady at 33.1% and monthly at 2.9%, pressuring gradual peso depreciation within January-introduced exchange bands expanding at inflation pace. April 10 FX rule tweaks addressed surging capital outflow costs, bolstering reserves but highlighting vulnerabilities; sub-1600 odds hinge on faster disinflation and fiscal surplus maintenance, while higher brackets risk policy slippage or external shocks ahead of monthly inflation data. Current rate stands at 1,385 ARS/USD.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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