Trader consensus heavily favors no RSF capture of Khartoum by June 30, reflecting the Sudanese Armed Forces' (SAF) firm control of the capital since recapturing it from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in March 2025, including key sites like the presidential palace and international airport. Recent SAF offensives in South Kordofan, such as dismantling RSF positions east of Daling on April 6 and reopening the Khartoum-Daling supply route, have bolstered defenses and civilian resistance against RSF incursions. While RSF maintains pressure in Darfur, Kordofan, and Blue Nile—seizing Kurmuk in late March—frontlines remain distant from Khartoum, with no verified advances toward the capital amid SAF redeployments and air strikes. Escalation barriers, including stretched RSF logistics and SAF momentum, underpin the 89.5% "No" implied probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30?
Will the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30?
$16,715 Vol.
$16,715 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$16,715 Vol.
$16,715 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Khartoum (https://maps.app.goo.gl/7iTPsRRJEJf4Mrjb6) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.Trader consensus heavily favors no RSF capture of Khartoum by June 30, reflecting the Sudanese Armed Forces' (SAF) firm control of the capital since recapturing it from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in March 2025, including key sites like the presidential palace and international airport. Recent SAF offensives in South Kordofan, such as dismantling RSF positions east of Daling on April 6 and reopening the Khartoum-Daling supply route, have bolstered defenses and civilian resistance against RSF incursions. While RSF maintains pressure in Darfur, Kordofan, and Blue Nile—seizing Kurmuk in late March—frontlines remain distant from Khartoum, with no verified advances toward the capital amid SAF redeployments and air strikes. Escalation barriers, including stretched RSF logistics and SAF momentum, underpin the 89.5% "No" implied probability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Khartoum (https://maps.app.goo.gl/7iTPsRRJEJf4Mrjb6) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
Market Opened: Dec 23, 2025, 6:39 AM ET
Volume
$16,715End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 6:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Khartoum (https://maps.app.goo.gl/7iTPsRRJEJf4Mrjb6) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.Trader consensus heavily favors no RSF capture of Khartoum by June 30, reflecting the Sudanese Armed Forces' (SAF) firm control of the capital since recapturing it from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in March 2025, including key sites like the presidential palace and international airport. Recent SAF offensives in South Kordofan, such as dismantling RSF positions east of Daling on April 6 and reopening the Khartoum-Daling supply route, have bolstered defenses and civilian resistance against RSF incursions. While RSF maintains pressure in Darfur, Kordofan, and Blue Nile—seizing Kurmuk in late March—frontlines remain distant from Khartoum, with no verified advances toward the capital amid SAF redeployments and air strikes. Escalation barriers, including stretched RSF logistics and SAF momentum, underpin the 89.5% "No" implied probability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Khartoum (https://maps.app.goo.gl/7iTPsRRJEJf4Mrjb6) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
Volume
$16,715End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 6:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no RSF capture of Khartoum by June 30, reflecting the Sudanese Armed Forces' (SAF) firm control of the capital since recapturing it from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in March 2025, including key sites like the presidential palace and international airport. Recent SAF offensives in South Kordofan, such as dismantling RSF positions east of Daling on April 6 and reopening the Khartoum-Daling supply route, have bolstered defenses and civilian resistance against RSF incursions. While RSF maintains pressure in Darfur, Kordofan, and Blue Nile—seizing Kurmuk in late March—frontlines remain distant from Khartoum, with no verified advances toward the capital amid SAF redeployments and air strikes. Escalation barriers, including stretched RSF logistics and SAF momentum, underpin the 89.5% "No" implied probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions