Market icon
Finance·TSM

Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) beat quarterly earnings?

Market icon
Finance·TSM

Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) beat quarterly earnings?

93% chance
Polymarket
NEW
93% chance
Polymarket
NEW
As of market creation, Taiwan Semiconductor is estimated to release earnings on April 16, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Taiwan Semiconductor's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $3.31 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Taiwan Semiconductor reports GAAP EPS greater than $3.31 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Taiwan Semiconductor releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: TSM trades on the New York Stock Exchange in ADR which represent 5 ordinary shares of the company. This market refers to earnings per ADR. Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 90% implied probability that Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) will beat Q1 2026 earnings estimates, driven by preliminary quarterly revenue of $35.8 billion—up 35-40% year-over-year and exceeding January guidance of $34.6 billion as well as LSEG analyst forecasts—fueled by surging AI chip demand from hyperscalers. March revenue hit a record $13 billion, accelerating year-over-year growth and underscoring margin resilience amid advanced-node strength like 3nm. TSM's track record of consistent earnings beats, including Q4 2025's 40% EPS surge, bolsters this skin-in-the-game sentiment. Traders eye the April 16 earnings call for Q2 guidance and capex updates amid geopolitical risks, with consensus EPS around $2.07-$3.29.

As of market creation, Taiwan Semiconductor is estimated to release earnings on April 16, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Taiwan Semiconductor's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $3.31 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Taiwan Semiconductor reports GAAP EPS greater than $3.31 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.

If Taiwan Semiconductor releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”

Note: TSM trades on the New York Stock Exchange in ADR which represent 5 ordinary shares of the company. This market refers to earnings per ADR.
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Volume
$850
End Date
Apr 16, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 6, 2026, 12:21 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://seekingalpha.com/

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
As of market creation, Taiwan Semiconductor is estimated to release earnings on April 16, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Taiwan Semiconductor's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $3.31 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Taiwan Semiconductor reports GAAP EPS greater than $3.31 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Taiwan Semiconductor releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: TSM trades on the New York Stock Exchange in ADR which represent 5 ordinary shares of the company. This market refers to earnings per ADR. Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
As of market creation, Taiwan Semiconductor is estimated to release earnings on April 16, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Taiwan Semiconductor's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $3.31 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Taiwan Semiconductor reports GAAP EPS greater than $3.31 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Taiwan Semiconductor releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: TSM trades on the New York Stock Exchange in ADR which represent 5 ordinary shares of the company. This market refers to earnings per ADR. Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 90% implied probability that Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) will beat Q1 2026 earnings estimates, driven by preliminary quarterly revenue of $35.8 billion—up 35-40% year-over-year and exceeding January guidance of $34.6 billion as well as LSEG analyst forecasts—fueled by surging AI chip demand from hyperscalers. March revenue hit a record $13 billion, accelerating year-over-year growth and underscoring margin resilience amid advanced-node strength like 3nm. TSM's track record of consistent earnings beats, including Q4 2025's 40% EPS surge, bolsters this skin-in-the-game sentiment. Traders eye the April 16 earnings call for Q2 guidance and capex updates amid geopolitical risks, with consensus EPS around $2.07-$3.29.

As of market creation, Taiwan Semiconductor is estimated to release earnings on April 16, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Taiwan Semiconductor's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $3.31 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Taiwan Semiconductor reports GAAP EPS greater than $3.31 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.

If Taiwan Semiconductor releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”

Note: TSM trades on the New York Stock Exchange in ADR which represent 5 ordinary shares of the company. This market refers to earnings per ADR.
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Volume
$850
End Date
Apr 16, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 6, 2026, 12:21 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://seekingalpha.com/

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
As of market creation, Taiwan Semiconductor is estimated to release earnings on April 16, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Taiwan Semiconductor's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $3.31 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Taiwan Semiconductor reports GAAP EPS greater than $3.31 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Taiwan Semiconductor releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: TSM trades on the New York Stock Exchange in ADR which represent 5 ordinary shares of the company. This market refers to earnings per ADR. Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) beat quarterly earnings?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 93% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 93¢, the market collectively assigns a 93% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) beat quarterly earnings?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 6, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) beat quarterly earnings?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) beat quarterly earnings?" is 93% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 93% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) beat quarterly earnings?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.