Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. federal custody in Brooklyn, New York, following his January 3, 2026, capture by U.S. special forces during a raid in Caracas amid narco-terrorism and drug trafficking indictments from the Southern District of New York. At his most recent pretrial hearing on March 26, U.S. District Judge Alvin Hellerstein rejected a defense motion to dismiss charges over disputes on accessing Venezuelan funds for legal fees, with Maduro pleading not guilty; trial proceedings continue without a set date. Venezuela's interim government, post-capture, has released hundreds of political prisoners and detained Americans, easing bilateral tensions, but demands Maduro's return have yielded no diplomatic breakthroughs. Release barriers include flight risk assessments, potential supermax detention, and lack of bail precedent for such charges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,596,508 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
December 31
13%
$2,596,508 Vol.
December 31
$201,058 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. federal custody in Brooklyn, New York, following his January 3, 2026, capture by U.S. special forces during a raid in Caracas amid narco-terrorism and drug trafficking indictments from the Southern District of New York. At his most recent pretrial hearing on March 26, U.S. District Judge Alvin Hellerstein rejected a defense motion to dismiss charges over disputes on accessing Venezuelan funds for legal fees, with Maduro pleading not guilty; trial proceedings continue without a set date. Venezuela's interim government, post-capture, has released hundreds of political prisoners and detained Americans, easing bilateral tensions, but demands Maduro's return have yielded no diplomatic breakthroughs. Release barriers include flight risk assessments, potential supermax detention, and lack of bail precedent for such charges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Volume
$2,596,508End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. federal custody in Brooklyn, New York, following his January 3, 2026, capture by U.S. special forces during a raid in Caracas amid narco-terrorism and drug trafficking indictments from the Southern District of New York. At his most recent pretrial hearing on March 26, U.S. District Judge Alvin Hellerstein rejected a defense motion to dismiss charges over disputes on accessing Venezuelan funds for legal fees, with Maduro pleading not guilty; trial proceedings continue without a set date. Venezuela's interim government, post-capture, has released hundreds of political prisoners and detained Americans, easing bilateral tensions, but demands Maduro's return have yielded no diplomatic breakthroughs. Release barriers include flight risk assessments, potential supermax detention, and lack of bail precedent for such charges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,596,508End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. federal custody in Brooklyn, New York, following his January 3, 2026, capture by U.S. special forces during a raid in Caracas amid narco-terrorism and drug trafficking indictments from the Southern District of New York. At his most recent pretrial hearing on March 26, U.S. District Judge Alvin Hellerstein rejected a defense motion to dismiss charges over disputes on accessing Venezuelan funds for legal fees, with Maduro pleading not guilty; trial proceedings continue without a set date. Venezuela's interim government, post-capture, has released hundreds of political prisoners and detained Americans, easing bilateral tensions, but demands Maduro's return have yielded no diplomatic breakthroughs. Release barriers include flight risk assessments, potential supermax detention, and lack of bail precedent for such charges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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