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Sports·Rookie

MLB: AL Rookie of the Year

Market icon
Sports·Rookie

MLB: AL Rookie of the Year

Carlos Lagrange 86%

Dylan Beavers 83%

Travis Bazzana 67%

Trey Yesavage 55%

Polymarket
NEW

Carlos Lagrange 86%

Dylan Beavers 83%

Travis Bazzana 67%

Trey Yesavage 55%

Polymarket
NEW

Carlos Lagrange

$0 Vol.

86%

Dylan Beavers

$0 Vol.

83%

Travis Bazzana

$0 Vol.

67%

Trey Yesavage

$0 Vol.

55%

Samuel Basallo

$0 Vol.

48%

Munetaka Murakami

$0 Vol.

44%

Connelly Early

$0 Vol.

39%

Kevin McGonigle

$0 Vol.

34%

Colt Emerson

$0 Vol.

29%

Payton Tolle

$0 Vol.

23%

Carson Williams

$0 Vol.

20%

Kazuma Okamoto

$19 Vol.

19%

Brice Matthews

$0 Vol.

11%

Spencer Jones

$0 Vol.

10%

Walker Jenkins

$0 Vol.

9%

Max Clark

$0 Vol.

9%

Leo De Vries

$25 Vol.

7%

Carter Jensen

$100 Vol.

3%

Tatsuya Imai

$132 Vol.

-

Chase DeLauter

$150 Vol.

37%

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on the AL Rookie of the Year market reflects a tightly contested early-season race among AL East standouts, with Yankees RHP prospect Carlos Lagrange (43%) slightly ahead of Orioles OF Dylan Beavers (42%) due to his ongoing Triple-A dominance—including nine 102+ mph fastballs and eight strikeouts in his latest start—building hype for an imminent MLB debut after a stellar spring. Blue Jays 3B Kazuma Okamoto (35.5%), a recent NPB import, has flashed power with two early homers despite a .220 average, while Red Sox LHP Connelly Early (34.5%) anchors Boston's rotation with a 2.63 ERA and 15 strikeouts over 13.2 innings. Small sample sizes keep probabilities bunched, as no rookie has separated via sustained batting average, OPS, or WHIP leadership amid frequent prospect promotions and injury list flux.

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$426
End Date
Dec 19, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 5:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on the AL Rookie of the Year market reflects a tightly contested early-season race among AL East standouts, with Yankees RHP prospect Carlos Lagrange (43%) slightly ahead of Orioles OF Dylan Beavers (42%) due to his ongoing Triple-A dominance—including nine 102+ mph fastballs and eight strikeouts in his latest start—building hype for an imminent MLB debut after a stellar spring. Blue Jays 3B Kazuma Okamoto (35.5%), a recent NPB import, has flashed power with two early homers despite a .220 average, while Red Sox LHP Connelly Early (34.5%) anchors Boston's rotation with a 2.63 ERA and 15 strikeouts over 13.2 innings. Small sample sizes keep probabilities bunched, as no rookie has separated via sustained batting average, OPS, or WHIP leadership amid frequent prospect promotions and injury list flux.

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$426
End Date
Dec 19, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 5:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Related

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Will Nolan McLean win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?

36%
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Will Aaron Judge win the 2026 American League MVP Award?

30%
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Will Tarik Skubal win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?

27%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MLB: AL Rookie of the Year" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Munetaka Murakami" at 44%, followed by "Carlos Lagrange" at 43%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"MLB: AL Rookie of the Year" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 26, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "MLB: AL Rookie of the Year," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MLB: AL Rookie of the Year" is "Munetaka Murakami" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Carlos Lagrange" at 43%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MLB: AL Rookie of the Year" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.