Market icon
Politics·Mexico

Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by...?

Market icon
Politics·Mexico

Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by...?

$169,094 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$169,094 Vol.

Polymarket

June 30, 2026

$123,342 Vol.

3%

December 31, 2026

$2,106 Vol.

10%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Claudia Sheinbaum ceases to be President of Mexico for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Claudia Sheinbaum's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Claudia Sheinbaum and the government of Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Claudia Sheinbaum maintains a firm grip on Mexico's presidency amid Morena's congressional supermajority, with trader consensus assigning low implied probabilities—around 3-7% by June 30 and 10-14% by December 31, 2026—to her resignation, removal, impeachment, or death in office. Her March 11 electoral reform overhaul was rejected by the lower house in her first major legislative defeat, followed by Senate allies gutting key provisions on March 26, prompting a "Plan B" via executive or alternative measures. Security gains, including the army's February killing of Sinaloa cartel leader El Mencho, lifted approval ratings from late-2025 lows, though violence persists. U.S. tensions over cartels and Venezuela policy pose risks, but no recall petition or institutional challenges threaten her term through 2030 barring unforeseen crises.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Claudia Sheinbaum ceases to be President of Mexico for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Claudia Sheinbaum's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Claudia Sheinbaum and the government of Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$169,094
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 27, 2025, 7:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Claudia Sheinbaum ceases to be President of Mexico for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Claudia Sheinbaum's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Claudia Sheinbaum and the government of Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Claudia Sheinbaum ceases to be President of Mexico for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Claudia Sheinbaum's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Claudia Sheinbaum and the government of Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Claudia Sheinbaum maintains a firm grip on Mexico's presidency amid Morena's congressional supermajority, with trader consensus assigning low implied probabilities—around 3-7% by June 30 and 10-14% by December 31, 2026—to her resignation, removal, impeachment, or death in office. Her March 11 electoral reform overhaul was rejected by the lower house in her first major legislative defeat, followed by Senate allies gutting key provisions on March 26, prompting a "Plan B" via executive or alternative measures. Security gains, including the army's February killing of Sinaloa cartel leader El Mencho, lifted approval ratings from late-2025 lows, though violence persists. U.S. tensions over cartels and Venezuela policy pose risks, but no recall petition or institutional challenges threaten her term through 2030 barring unforeseen crises.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Claudia Sheinbaum ceases to be President of Mexico for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Claudia Sheinbaum's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Claudia Sheinbaum and the government of Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$169,094
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 27, 2025, 7:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Claudia Sheinbaum ceases to be President of Mexico for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Claudia Sheinbaum's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Claudia Sheinbaum and the government of Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31, 2026" at 10%, followed by "June 30, 2026" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 10¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by...?" has generated $169.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 27, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by...?" is "December 31, 2026" at 10%, meaning the market assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "June 30, 2026" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.